Journal on Migration and Human Security

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Journal on Migration and Human Security

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The new evidence suggests that unauthorized migration across the southern border has plummeted, with successful illegal entries falling from roughly 1.8 million in 2000 to just 200,000 by 2015. Border enforcement has been a significant reason for the decline — in particular, the growing use of “consequences” such as jail time for illegal border crossers has had a powerful effect in deterring repeated border crossing efforts. The success of deterrence through enforcement has meant that attempted crossings have fallen dramatically even as the likelihood of a border crosser being apprehended by the Border Patrol has only risen slightly, to just over a 50-50 chance.

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Measured by the number of apprehensions or arrests at the border, it was quickly apparent that building fences and massing Border Patrol agents was a powerful deterrent to illegal crossing in the places where it was deployed. In the El Paso sector, the decline in apprehensions was almost immediate following Operation Hold the Line, falling from 250,000 in 1992 to fewer than 80,000 by 1994. In the San Diego sector, apprehensions fell more gradually but still dramatically, from more than 550,000 in 1992 to just 110,000 in 2001 (CBP 2016a). But it was also equally apparent that sealing the high-traffic corridors alone would not significantly reduce illegal crossings. Instead, border crossers move to the more remote regions in Arizona, and the numbers continued to climb

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The decline in traditional Mexican border crossers coming to the United States for better jobs has been accompanied by a rise in Central Americans — mostly from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras — arriving at the border to request asylum protection. Over the past several years, apprehensions of non-Mexicans at the border, mostly from Central America, have met or exceeded apprehensions of Mexicans. The number of asylum requests from those arriving at the border has also soared in recent years, from just 22,000 in 2011 to 140,000 by 2015. Arrests of unaccompanied minors and family units have fluctuated, hitting nearly 140,000 in FY 2014, falling to 80,000 in FY 2015, and rising again to nearly 140,000 in FY 2016, but they have been consistently far higher than they were a decade ago (CBP 2016b).

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