Coup d'état in Niger: Is Russia involved?

Niger has functioned as a security guardian for the Sahel and the European Union, thanks to its efforts against jihadists and illegal migration. Amidst this context, the military coup in Niger has seen Russian flags adorning the streets of the capital Niamey, and slogans proclaiming "Down with France, long live Putin!" have surfaced on posters.

The Sahel region has experienced multiple military coups since 2020, with the appearance of Russian PMC "Wagner" mercenaries in Mali during 2019-2020. The departure of Western forces, particularly French troops combating jihadists, marked their arrival. However, claims of Russian intervention in Niger remain unsubstantiated, with no evidence of Russian mercenaries observed by observers and humanitarian workers.

Experts advise against exaggerating the situation, emphasizing that the display of Russian flags could signify anti-Western and anti-French sentiment rather than genuine support for Russia. Although the Kremlin may indirectly benefit by weakening the EU's African political stance, it's unclear whether Russia played a role in the coup.

Deposed President Mohamed Bazoum, the first democratically elected head of state in Niger, didn't attend the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg as the coup unfolded. While Russia has condemned the coup, Western analysts argue that Niger's trade relations are not the primary factor driving the EU's connection with the country. Niger's strategic role in combating extremism and illegal migration in the Sahel makes it a crucial partner for European nations.

President Bazoum's efforts to enhance stability and collaborate with the EU against jihadism and migration were undermined by the coup leaders. The junta's accusations of his policy failures were used to justify the coup. Despite Russia's condemnation, the founder of PMC Wagner, Prigozhin, expressed support for the coup, aligning with his anti-imperialist rhetoric.

As West African bloc ECOWAS demanded the junta restore the legitimate president, neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso supported General Tchiani against external intervention. While the situation remains uncertain, the region's security is at risk, as instability aids the advancement of jihadist groups in Niger and neighboring countries.