U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal

According to sources familiar with classified information, the U.S. intelligence community has assessed that Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive will likely fail to achieve its key goal of reaching the southeastern city of Melitopol. The city's strategic significance lies in its role as a gateway to Crimea, enabling Russia to move military personnel and equipment between the peninsula and other occupied regions in southern Ukraine.

This assessment is founded on Russia's adeptness in defending occupied territory, particularly through the use of minefields and trenches. As a result, Ukrainian forces, armed with newly acquired Western weaponry, are expected to remain several miles away from Melitopol, unable to break through Russia's formidable defenses.

Ukraine's counteroffensive, launched in early June, aimed to replicate its previous success in the Kharkiv region. However, despite possessing advanced military equipment, including U.S. Bradley Fighting Vehicles and German-made Leopard 2 tanks, the initial week of fighting yielded substantial casualties for Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces faced a crucial decision: push through significant losses to breach Russia's main defensive line or opt for a more cautious approach. Ultimately, Kyiv chose the latter strategy, resulting in incremental gains across various fronts over the summer.

Melitopol's challenging geography, coupled with Russia's multi-layered defense strategy, poses a substantial obstacle to Ukraine's advancement. Military analyst Rob Lee notes that Russia's three defensive lines and fortified cities along the path to Melitopol make progress exceedingly difficult.

The assessment's implications have already triggered debates among policymakers. Some Republicans have questioned President Biden's request for additional aid to Ukraine in light of the modest outcomes of the counteroffensive. Meanwhile, other critics argue that the U.S. should have supplied Ukraine with more powerful weaponry sooner.

U.S. officials have countered these criticisms, asserting that more advanced weapons would not necessarily have altered the outcome. A senior administration official emphasized that the primary challenge lies in piercing Russia's main defensive line, a feat that remains elusive.

General Mark A. Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, highlighted the arduous nature of the offensive, describing it as "long, bloody, and slow." Despite the challenges, he acknowledged the successful degradation of Russian forces.

The ongoing counteroffensive's impact on Ukrainian forces raises questions about the deployment strategy and allocation of resources. While Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba reaffirmed Kyiv's determination to regain its land, challenges such as penetrating minefields have strained resources.

Analysts emphasize the complexity of the situation, attributing Russia's effectiveness in defending occupied areas to its careful preparation and proficiency in tactics such as trenches and mines. The intelligence assessment's alignment with a leaked U.S. forecast from February underscores the continuity of this challenging scenario.

U.S. officials remain cautiously optimistic, leaving the door open for Ukraine to overcome the odds. However, any sustained counteroffensive through the winter would depend on several variables, including troop readiness, equipment availability, and Russia's performance in winter operations.

As the conflict unfolds, Ukraine continues its battle for strategic objectives, pitting its determination against Russia's adept defensive strategies in a struggle that transcends seasons and terrain.