Prigozhin’s life and death exposed the rot in the Russian state

On June 23, Russia experienced a seismic shock that reverberated through the carefully constructed power vertical President Vladimir Putin had painstakingly built over more than two decades. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the enigmatic head of the Wagner mercenary group, which had close ties to the Russian president, staged a mutiny that laid bare the deep-seated fractures within the Russian elite.

The standoff between Prigozhin and the Kremlin appeared to end with a dramatic deal. It saw the Wagner Group's forces relocating to Belarus, while Prigozhin was granted the unusual privilege of returning to Russia, regaining access to his substantial assets and business interests, and continuing his extensive involvement in Africa. However, it is now evident that this truce was short-lived and merely the calm before the storm.

On August 23, a private jet carrying Prigozhin and his right-hand man in the Wagner Group, Dmitry Utkin, crashed in the Tver region near Moscow. A few days later, the Russian authorities confirmed their deaths after DNA tests were conducted. In the wake of the crash, various interpretations and conspiracy theories have emerged, but the most straightforward and credible explanation is that Prigozhin was assassinated in a delayed response to his audacious insurrection.

The motive behind this assassination remains a subject of speculation. It could have been a meticulously planned act of revenge orchestrated by the Kremlin, a desperate attempt to "save face" and "reassert control" over a situation that had spiraled out of control. Alternatively, it might have been a more self-serving maneuver orchestrated by individuals eager to seize control of Wagner's highly profitable operations in Africa and other regions. Nevertheless, Prigozhin's life and death have offered a revealing glimpse into the complex and often murky workings of the Russian state.

Under Putin's prolonged leadership, Russia's political system has gradually been infiltrated by informal patronage networks that have progressively eroded the foundations of state institutions while usurping many of their essential functions. It is upon this informal power structure, which rewards those favored by the Kremlin, that Prigozhin built his vast wealth and established a sprawling business empire encompassing diverse sectors, including catering companies, media organizations (notably, a widely publicized troll farm), and Wagner, his own private military company (PMC).

For a considerable period, Prigozhin's role in both Russian domestic and foreign operations remained shrouded in secrecy, only coming to light during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The exigencies and pressures of the war provided an opening for individuals like him, operating outside the formal institutions of power, to step into the spotlight and openly pursue their ambitions.

In 2022, Prigozhin finally acknowledged his role in founding Wagner, even establishing a formal headquarters for the PMC in an opulent building in St. Petersburg. He became more vocal on social media platforms, openly bragging about interfering in the 2016 US elections and even hinting at the possibility of leading a conservative movement or founding a new political party—a move seemingly aimed at filling the void left by the death of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the head of the populist, right-wing Liberal Democratic Party of Russia.

Simultaneously, the Russian military faced a series of humiliating defeats in Ukraine, which created additional space for the Wagner Group and other irregular forces, such as those loyal to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, to make significant gains on the battlefield. The Wagner mercenaries' campaign to capture the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, for instance, allowed the group to present itself as the sole military force capable of delivering victories.

The PMC's effectiveness enabled Prigozhin to amass even more influence in the war and openly challenge the very institution responsible for waging it: the Ministry of Defence. This confrontation played out in Prigozhin's regular video addresses, where he openly criticized top Russian military leaders, including Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov.

In response, the Ministry of Defence attempted to bring Wagner under its control, a move that ultimately precipitated the mutiny launched in June. Prigozhin's death may have brought an end to this specific episode of intra-elite conflict that had developed over the previous year. Still, it will not resolve the broader problems plaguing the Russian state and its institutions, which are further exacerbated by the ongoing war.

Prigozhin's demise marks the silencing of an influential actor who was unafraid to speak candidly about the realities of the war. While his critiques exposed corruption and ineffectiveness within the military and state authorities, they also provided an outlet for the frustrations of war hardliners, who perceived the Russian military's leadership as incompetent.

Recent developments, such as the arrest of Igor Girkin, a former intelligence officer turned influential war hawk, and the dismissal of General Sergey Surovikin, who was removed for his critical stance within the army leadership, underscore the Kremlin's determination to suppress influential critics and tightly control the narrative surrounding the war.

However, completely stifling the voices of war hardliners and Prigozhin sympathizers may prove challenging, and signs of simmering tensions are likely to resurface. One group worth monitoring is the growing number of volunteers who are actively supporting the war effort by raising funds and sending supplies to Russian soldiers on the front lines. These grassroots movements engaged in the war effort at home may channel growing dissent within a society that, until now, has largely attempted to disengage from the harsh realities of war.

Prigozhin leaves behind a sprawling business empire that will likely be dismantled and taken over by a mix of state and private actors. However, those who inherit his ventures are unlikely to possess the same managerial acumen or inspirational leadership to sustain and expand his operations, particularly in Africa. The developments in this sphere will likely remain shrouded from the public eye, much like they were before Prigozhin ventured into the open.

For now, Vladimir Putin appears to have successfully maintained his grip on power. The mutiny led by Prigozhin is certain to make him more vigilant against future "black swan" events triggered by the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the underlying fragility of Russia's political system, exemplified by Prigozhin's daring challenge to authority, persists over the long term.