Russia Is Shrugging Off Sanctions

The article highlights the challenges and limitations of Western sanctions against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Despite initial promises of "sanctions from hell," Russia has managed to sustain and even increase its oil revenues, allowing it to fund military activities and maintain domestic support for the war. The author argues that current sanctions strategies have not been sufficiently effective.

One key issue is that while sanctions have targeted Russia's energy sector, they still allow for trade with parts of the Russian economy, avoiding disruptions to Western industries. The article discusses the use of an oil price cap, which Russia has found ways to circumvent, and the challenges in enforcing sanctions against companies with no Western connections, particularly those in China.

Additionally, the article points out that the EU's efforts to embargo Russian oil imports have been offset by increased demand from non-Western countries, such as China. The reduction in Western exports to Russia inadvertently leaves more dollars and euros at Russia's disposal and helps promote ruble stability.

The article also highlights issues related to export controls on critical components in the tech and defense sector, which have been undermined by smuggling, particularly through Chinese intermediaries. The lack of enforcement mechanisms on the corporate side is seen as a problem.

The author suggests that the U.S. government could leverage its position as a net petroleum exporter to lower global oil prices, which historically has had a significant impact on Russia's revenues. Furthermore, a more focused approach to export sanctions on critical components with no identifiable non-Western substitutes is recommended.

In conclusion, the article emphasizes the need for a coordinated, well-thought-out, and long-term-oriented effort in imposing effective sanctions on Russia. The current approach, dominated by partisan considerations and sporadic solutions, may not be sufficient to contain the challenges posed by Russia in the coming years.