How reliant is Germany – and the rest of Europe – on Russian gas?

The article focuses on the critical issue of Europe's, particularly Germany's, reliance on Russian gas in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the geopolitical tensions it has engendered.

Germany's Dependence on Russian Gas:

The article begins by highlighting Germany's significant reliance on Russian natural gas, which comprised over half of its gas consumption before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Natural gas accounts for approximately 27% of Germany's overall energy mix, making the country particularly vulnerable to disruptions in Russian gas supplies. In response to the invasion, Germany has sought alternative sources, reducing its reliance on Russian gas to about a quarter. However, this remaining quarter is crucial, as it is used to heat homes and power industries in the EU's largest economy.

Reduced Gas Flow from Russia:

The situation has been exacerbated by Russia's reduction of gas supplies. Key pipelines connecting Russia and Germany, such as the Nord Stream 1, have seen significant reductions in gas flow. Gazprom, Russia's state-owned gas giant, has cited technical issues for these reductions, which Germany disputes. This has led to concerns about whether Germany will have sufficient gas supplies for the upcoming winter.

Potential Gas Shortage and Rationing:

If Russia continues to supply gas at reduced levels, Germany could face serious challenges in meeting its gas needs, particularly in winter. The government has been filling gas reserves, but there is still the risk of shortages in the future. In the event of a shortage, rationing measures would likely focus on industry, with private households and essential services like hospitals being protected. However, there is also the possibility that the government will encourage consumption reduction through increased bills.

The Root of the Dilemma:

The article discusses the background of Germany's energy policy, which has increasingly relied on Russian gas due to its liberalized energy market and political efforts to forge closer ties with Moscow. Additionally, Germany's commitment to phasing out nuclear and coal power in favor of renewable energy has inadvertently increased its dependency on Russian gas.

Nuclear Power as a Contingency:

The possibility of extending the life of Germany's remaining nuclear power plants is mentioned, but the government sees this as offering little benefit with considerable risk. These plants currently contribute a minor percentage to Germany's energy mix, and extending their operation would require overcoming significant technical and regulatory hurdles.

Impact on the Rest of Europe:

Finally, the article touches on the broader European context, noting that Russia accounted for a significant portion of the EU's gas needs before the war. While the EU has committed to reducing its reliance on Russian gas, achieving this goal has proven challenging due to economic considerations and differing stances among member states.

In summary, the article paints a picture of a Europe, with Germany at the forefront, grappling with the challenges of energy dependence on Russia amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and the urgent need to diversify energy sources and enhance energy security.