Alone together: How the war in Ukraine shapes the Russian-Iranian relationship

The article discusses the deepening cooperation between Russia and Iran, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict. This partnership, encompassing military, economic, and political spheres, has reached new heights due to the shared anti-Western stance of both nations. The collaboration poses significant threats to European security, including the potential prolongation of the Ukraine war, advancement of Iran's nuclear program, destabilization of the Middle East, and challenges to Western global governance.

The relationship between Russia and Iran has been catalyzed by mutual isolation from the West. Russia's reliance on Iran, especially for military aid in Ukraine, marks a significant shift. Iran's hardliners, disillusioned by the West's perceived betrayals and disappointed by the 2015 nuclear deal's failure, have found greater alignment with Russia. This shift is evident in Iran's increasing nuclear activities and military assistance to Russia, including the provision of drones for use in Ukraine.

The article emphasizes the importance of a strategic response from European governments to mitigate the security risks posed by this alliance. It suggests a combination of diplomatic engagement and calibrated pressure to slow down Russian-Iranian cooperation. This includes targeted sanctions on Iran's drone and missile production, enhancing intelligence on arms transfers, and exploiting diplomatic openings to create wedges between Russia and Iran.

An essential part of this strategy involves offering Iran economic incentives in exchange for reducing its military support for Russia, rolling back its nuclear activities, and ceasing hostile actions in the Middle East. The West's economic leverage could potentially deter Iran from deepening its partnership with Russia, thereby isolating Moscow further.

However, the article acknowledges the challenges in this approach, given the complexities of Iran's internal politics and its strategic calculations. The potential for Iran to profit from the geopolitical shifts caused by the Ukraine war is significant. Nonetheless, the deepening Russia-Iran partnership signifies a new global order where European countries must navigate difficult trade-offs to counter geopolitical blocs opposing the West.

In summary, the article outlines the escalating Russia-Iran partnership as a direct threat to European security interests, proposing a mix of pressure and diplomacy as potential countermeasures. The complexity of the situation is highlighted, with a focus on the intricate balance of geopolitical interests and the necessity for strategic, nuanced responses from European nations.