Turkey’s exports to Russia continue to rise amid declining trade with other countries

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolving trade relationship between Turkey and Russia within the broader context of Turkey's overall economic performance and international relations.

In June 2023, while Turkey experienced a 10.5 percent decrease in exports overall, its trade with Russia significantly diverged from this trend. Turkey's exports to Russia rose by 23.9 percent in June and by an impressive 88.6 percent since the beginning of the year, compared to the previous year's data. The value of exports to Russia in June 2023 stood at $848.4 million, up from $684.9 million in the same month the previous year. From January to June 2023, Turkey's exports to Russia more than doubled from $2.6 billion to $4.9 billion.

This increase in exports to Russia occurred amidst a backdrop of declining Turkish imports from Russia, particularly in cheap oil, contributing to a decrease in Turkey's total imports from Russia from $5.09 billion to $2.98 billion. Despite this, Russia remains Turkey's largest trading partner in terms of imports, accounting for 13.4 percent of Turkey's total imports.

The article highlights the geopolitical implications of this trade relationship. Turkey's refusal to join Western sanctions against Russia following the latter's invasion of Ukraine appears to have been rewarded by Moscow. Russia postponed a significant natural gas debt owed by Turkey's public company BOTAŞ and discussed the creation of a European gas hub in Turkey, strengthening energy ties between the two nations. Additionally, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's open-door policy towards Russian oligarchs and the increase in Russian business ventures in Turkey, particularly in real estate and investment advisory companies, underscore the deepening economic connections.

Furthermore, the transportation sector saw a notable increase in activity between the two countries. The number of Russian and Turkish trucks transporting goods increased significantly after a protocol signed in May 2022, which raised the annual truck quota for Turkey.

Despite these growing economic ties, Turkey has shown some alignment with G7 policies, agreeing to halt the transit of sanctioned Western goods to Russia. However, the effectiveness of this policy shift remains to be seen, as official trade data from May and June indicate no declining trend in Turkey's exports to Russia.

The article also touches upon Erdogan's political maneuvers in light of these developments. Erdogan's support for Russian leadership during internal challenges and his criticism of local opposition parties for allegedly creating tension between Russia and Turkey illustrate the complex interplay between domestic and foreign policy in Turkey's approach to Russia.

In summary, the article portrays a Turkey that is increasingly integrating its economy with Russia's, particularly in the energy and transportation sectors, while navigating the complexities of international sanctions and regional geopolitics. This burgeoning economic relationship, however, is set against the backdrop of a challenging global economic environment and Turkey's delicate position in international affairs.