The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Africa's Path to Food Security and Resilience

In a recent opinion editorial by H.E. Josefa Leonel Correia Sacko, AUC Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy, and Sustainable Environment (ARBE), and H.E. Dr. Ibrahim Assane Mayaki, CEO of AUDA-NEPAD, the authors shed light on the far-reaching impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Africa. Against the backdrop of the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, this geopolitical crisis poses a significant threat to Africa's food security, economic stability, and growth prospects.

The authors highlight the rapid escalation of global prices for essential commodities such as wheat, sunflower, and crude oil within a few short weeks. Africa, heavily reliant on food imports from Russia and Ukraine, is already grappling with price shocks and supply chain disruptions of these crucial commodities. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is poised to impact food security in Africa both in terms of availability and pricing, particularly for wheat and sunflower. Furthermore, it exacerbates uncertainties in global financial markets and supply chain systems, hampering Africa's socio-economic recovery and growth.

Over the past decade, Africa's demand for cereal crops, particularly wheat and sunflower, has grown significantly, primarily met by imports rather than local production. Wheat imports have surged by 68 percent between 2007 and 2019, reaching a staggering 47 million tonnes. Russia and Ukraine, renowned as the world's "breadbasket," play pivotal roles in supplying these commodities to Africa, with North Africa, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Africa being key importers.

However, the authors underscore the additional complications arising from Western sanctions imposed on Russia. These sanctions have disrupted commercial flows between Russia and Africa, primarily due to the closure of vital port operations in the Black Sea. The consequences of this disruption extend beyond food security. Russia's status as a major exporter of fertilizers has raised concerns of a worldwide shortage, potentially leading to higher food prices and disrupting agricultural production and food security. Furthermore, Russia ranks as the world's third-largest oil producer, and disruptions in oil prices could trigger increased fuel costs and elevated food production expenses.

Certain regions in Africa, such as the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, face heightened food insecurity risks due to a combination of country-specific shocks, climate change, export restrictions, and stockpiling. These vulnerabilities could be further exacerbated if rising fertilizer and energy-intensive input costs negatively impact the upcoming agricultural season due to the ongoing conflict.

Amid these challenges, the authors highlight a silver lining—an opportunity for Africa to reduce its reliance on food imports from outside the continent. They stress the importance of leveraging Africa's vast arable land resources, representing 60 percent of the global share, to boost domestic food production and expand exports to the global market. This shift could reduce food and nutrition insecurity stemming from external shocks.

The authors also discuss Africa's Common Position on Food Systems, developed in collaboration with the African Union Commission (AUC) and the African Union Development Agency-NEPAD (AUDA-NEPAD) in 2021. This initiative aligns with Africa's Agenda 2063 and the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), focusing on resilience in the face of growing vulnerability and shocks. To prevent future supply chain disruptions of wheat and sunflower across Africa, countries capable of producing these cereals should increase their production capacity and engage in intra-African trade. For those unable to do so, integrating specific food crops into their agriculture value chain could reduce reliance on imports from Russia and Ukraine, fostering intra-African trade and agribusiness growth.

The authors also emphasize the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a catalyst for transforming Africa's food systems. This trade treaty, effective since January 2021, offers vast economic opportunities, with agribusiness expected to contribute significantly to its growth. AfCFTA is poised to increase production, value addition, and the development of quality infrastructure and food safety standards, facilitating local and regional agri-food markets.

Moreover, the authors advocate for African countries to bolster their oil and gas production and exploration capabilities. This would mitigate future food price shocks resulting from rising global oil and gas prices by ensuring a steady supply chain among major global producers. Countries with oil and gas resources, including Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Egypt, Libya, Nigeria, and others, should explore increasing production to alleviate fuel price shocks and lower food costs. Additionally, investment in oil and gas exploration should be encouraged in countries with untapped underground oil reserves.

Lastly, the authors draw attention to the AU's declaration of 2022 as the Year of Nutrition. The objective is to strengthen food and nutrition security, especially given that Africa faces challenges from climate change, extreme weather events, and limited adoption of yield-increasing technologies. Climate-resilient technologies hold promise in enhancing food production and reducing poverty and hunger.

In conclusion, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has underscored the urgent need for Africa to develop resilient and inclusive food systems. Africa's journey to food security and resilience will require continental and regional solutions, increased domestic food production, and leveraging the opportunities presented by initiatives like AfCFTA. By reducing reliance on food imports, bolstering oil and gas production, and investing in agricultural technologies and digital innovations, Africa can navigate these turbulent times and build a more sustainable future for its food systems and economic prosperity.