Minsk agreements

The Minsk Agreements were designed to resolve the Donbas conflict in Ukraine, involving armed Russian separatist groups and Ukrainian forces. The first agreement, known as the Minsk Protocol, was drafted in 2014 by the Trilateral Contact Group (Ukraine, Russia, OSCE) and signed in Minsk, Belarus. However, the ceasefire failed, leading to a second agreement, Minsk II, in 2015. This included a ceasefire, weapon withdrawal, prisoner exchanges, and political reforms, but it was not fully implemented.

The Minsk Agreements were designed to resolve the Donbas conflict in Ukraine, involving armed Russian separatist groups and Ukrainian forces. The first agreement, known as the Minsk Protocol, was drafted in 2014 by the Trilateral Contact Group (Ukraine, Russia, OSCE) and signed in Minsk, Belarus. However, the ceasefire failed, leading to a second agreement, Minsk II, in 2015. This included a ceasefire, weapon withdrawal, prisoner exchanges, and political reforms, but it was not fully implemented.

The Minsk Protocol, established to facilitate peace in eastern and southern Ukraine, included twelve points like an immediate ceasefire, decentralization of power, and OSCE-monitored border security. Despite initial efforts, violations occurred, leading to further negotiations and the follow-up memorandum, which aimed to enhance the ceasefire and withdraw foreign forces.

The Minsk II agreement in 2015, brokered by France and Germany, sought to revive the failed Minsk Protocol. It involved complex measures like a new ceasefire, weapon withdrawals, and constitutional reforms in Ukraine. Despite these efforts, the ceasefire was fragile, and significant fighting continued, notably in Debaltseve.

Both agreements faced challenges in implementation, with continued fighting and political disagreements. Over time, not a single provision of the Minsk deal was fully implemented, leading to ongoing conflict and instability in the region.

The Steinmeier Formula, introduced in 2016, aimed to resolve the Donbas conflict. It faced challenges, including differing interpretations and non-fulfillment of conditions. Despite initial support, the effectiveness of the Minsk Agreements, including the Steinmeier Formula, was questioned over time.

Notably, in early 2022, French President Macron and US Secretary of State Blinken still saw the Minsk agreements as a potential solution for the Donbas conflict. However, the Russian intervention in Donbas aimed to establish pro-Russian governments, making the agreements more favorable to Russia.

Experts like Mark Galeotti suggested abandoning the Minsk process for more meaningful dialogue. Vladislav Surkov, Putin's former aide, described the agreements as Russia's geopolitical counter-attack against the West and a division of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov indicated that with US support, the Minsk Agreements could be quickly resolved.

Controversy surrounded Russia's role in the agreements. While some saw it as a mediator, others argued for direct negotiations between Ukraine and the separatist republics. Ukrainian President Zelensky refused to negotiate with the separatists, labeling them as terrorists.

Diplomatic tensions escalated with Russia's breach of protocol and contradictory statements regarding its role in the agreements. By early 2022, the Ukrainian government expressed that fulfilling the Minsk agreement would lead to the country's destruction.

In February 2022, the Russian Duma's motion to recognize the LPR and DPR, and subsequent official recognition by Russia, further complicated the situation. President Putin declared the Minsk agreements void, blaming Ukraine and accusing it of genocide in Donbas – claims widely dismissed as baseless by the international community and experts.

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainian President Zelensky asserted that Ukraine would not engage in further agreements like Minsk, viewing them as traps that led to the loss of territories. Angela Merkel later reflected that the Minsk agreement was an attempt to buy time for Ukraine to strengthen its defenses.