Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on African Food Systems

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, while thousands of miles away from the African continent, is casting a long shadow over Africa's food security and economic stability. In an opinion editorial by H.E. Josefa Leonel Correia Sacko, AUC Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy, and Sustainable Environment, and H.E. Dr. Ibrahim Assane Mayaki, CEO of AUDA-NEPAD, the dire consequences of this global conflict on Africa are highlighted.

Africa, already grappling with the socio-economic aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, now faces the threat of skyrocketing global prices for essential commodities such as wheat, sunflower, and crude oil. The prices of these commodities have surged within a matter of weeks, causing disruptions in the supply chain and sending shockwaves through African economies that heavily rely on food imports from Russia and Ukraine.

The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Africa's food security is a significant concern. Africa's dependency on these countries for food imports, especially wheat and sunflower, is pronounced. Over the past decade, there has been a growing demand for cereal crops, largely met by imports rather than local production. Wheat imports alone increased by a staggering 68 percent between 2007 and 2019, reaching 47 million tonnes. Notably, Russia and Ukraine, known as the world's "breadbasket," play pivotal roles in supplying these commodities to Africa.

Key regions, including North Africa, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Africa, account for the lion's share of wheat imports. Projections indicate that wheat consumption in Africa will continue to rise, with 63.4 percent expected to be imported from outside the continent by 2025.

However, the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries have added to the complications. The closure of vital port operations in the Black Sea, driven by these sanctions, is disrupting commercial flows between Russia and Africa. Moreover, Russia's role as a major exporter of fertilizers raises concerns about a global shortage of fertilizers, which could lead to higher food prices and adversely affect agricultural production and food security in Africa. Additionally, the conflict has impacted oil prices, potentially resulting in increased fuel prices and higher food production costs.

Certain African regions, such as the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, face a higher risk of food insecurity due to a combination of factors, including country-specific shocks, climate change, export restrictions, and stockpiling. The ongoing conflict's effects on fertilizers and energy-intensive input costs may further compound these vulnerabilities, potentially affecting the upcoming agricultural season.

In conclusion, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although geographically distant from Africa, poses a grave threat to the continent's food security and economic stability. Africa's reliance on food imports from these conflict-affected countries, coupled with disruptions in the supply chain, has raised concerns about the availability and pricing of essential commodities like wheat and sunflower. Additionally, the conflict's impact on fertilizer and oil prices adds another layer of uncertainty to Africa's already complex food security challenges. As the situation continues to evolve, African nations must carefully navigate these challenges to safeguard their food security and economic interests.