End of the Black Sea Grain Initiative: Implications for sub-Saharan Africa

The termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) on July 17, 2023, by Russia has raised concerns about the potential decline in wheat exports to developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and disruptions in the global market. The BSGI had enabled Ukraine to export 33 million metric tons of grains and agricultural products, predominantly to developing countries, thereby contributing to the reduction of international staple food prices and sustaining global food supplies.

Wheat, while not a staple in much of SSA, is important for urban consumers. Before the war, Russia and Ukraine were major wheat suppliers to SSA, accounting for one-third of its total wheat imports. The war and the BSGI have impacted these supplies. For instance, Ukraine's wheat exports to SSA decreased by 55% in the 2022-2023 marketing year, while Russia's exports declined by 13%. This reduction was partially compensated by exports from other regions.

The data indicates that the overall global wheat exports to SSA decreased by nearly 7% in the 2022-2023 marketing year. The decline was most substantial in West Africa. The future of wheat exports from Russia to SSA is uncertain, with predictions showing Russia focusing more on exports to the Middle East and Northern Africa.

The article concludes that the end of the BSGI will likely lead to reduced wheat shipments from Ukraine to SSA, particularly those by the World Food Programme, and potentially higher global prices. However, the impact on SSA might be small due to its lower dependency on wheat compared to other regions like North Africa and the Middle East. The situation remains uncertain, and the extent to which Russia will fulfill its commitments to supply wheat to SSA is yet to be seen.