Ukraine recap: fallout from death of Yevgeny Prigozhin will be felt far beyond Moscow
Where were you when news broke that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, had been killed in a plane crash? For those following Ukraine closely, it was a moment akin to the JFK assassination, and much like the Zapruder film, the video footage of Prigozhin's Embraer Legacy 600 private jet plummeting from the sky remains unforgettable.
Within moments of the visuals emerging, journalists and pundits scrambled to draw conclusions: Was there a bomb on board? Had the aircraft been shot down? Prigozhin had been traveling with colleagues from Moscow to St. Petersburg—did he meet with Vladimir Putin? Had they reconciled after his aborted "mutiny" in June? Wasn't he supposed to be with his troops in Belarus? And what about that video of him in Africa just days prior? So many questions remained unanswered.
Many questions indeed remain unanswered. The Kremlin's official explanation for the crash was simply that it was an accident. It took four days to confirm that Prigozhin had been on board the ill-fated flight, along with six other passengers and three flight staff. Vladimir Putin's response to Prigozhin's death was enigmatic, describing him as a "talented businessman" with a "complicated fate" who had made "serious mistakes" in his life.
We may never definitively determine the circumstances of Prigozhin's death or, if it was indeed an assassination, who ordered it. However, experts like Stefan Wolff, specializing in international relations at the University of Birmingham, suggest that those who significantly challenge Russian President Putin's authority tend not to live long thereafter. Prigozhin's direct defiance of Putin's authority by leading his troops out of Ukraine, meeting with Russian military leaders, and receiving an enthusiastic welcome in Rostov-on-Don would likely have infuriated the Russian president, making him appear indecisive and weak.
US President Joe Biden's reaction to Prigozhin's death mirrors what many were thinking: "I don't know for a fact what happened, but I'm not surprised. There's not much that happens in Russia that Putin's not behind. But I don't know enough to know the answer."
This episode raises intriguing questions about how Putin's standing may have been affected. On one hand, Prigozhin's death might deter anyone contemplating a challenge to the Russian president. On the other hand, Matthew Sussex from the Australian National University suggests that Prigozhin's demise, following apparent assurances of safety, sends a message to Russia's elites that they cannot trust their leader's word.
Prigozhin's funeral in St. Petersburg was notably private, as the Kremlin appeared to want to avoid his death becoming a public show of support. One tribute from the "grateful people of Africa" hailed him as a "second Nelson Mandela," a sentiment that may surprise many Africans given the Wagner Group's involvement in various African countries.
Ezenwa Olumba from Royal Holloway, University of London, and Idris Mohammed from Usmanu Danfodiyo University in Sokoto, Nigeria, who study conflict in Africa, have conducted research in countries where the Wagner Group is active. They find common elements in these countries, such as insurgencies or civil wars, abundant natural resources, corrupt leadership, and unconstitutional governance. They argue that rather than improving these situations, Russian mercenaries tend to prolong conflicts, enrich themselves and their clients, and allegedly engage in severe human rights abuses and violence.
Over 18 months into the conflict, Ukraine is now considered one of the most mine-contaminated countries globally, with about 30% of its territory believed to be affected. In March alone, 226 people were killed and 496 injured by landmines. These deadly devices pose a long-term threat to Ukraine's recovery, rendering vast areas uninhabitable and unsuitable for farming—an issue of great significance for an agriculture-dependent country like Ukraine.
Ukraine received a welcome boost when the United States reversed its stance and allowed countries that had purchased its state-of-the-art F-16 fighter jets to supply them to Ukraine. Approximately 40 aircraft are being made available by Denmark and the Netherlands, with more expected to follow. While it will take time to train Ukrainian pilots to operate these aircraft, they are expected to provide Ukraine with an advantage in the air. Moreover, their deployment will enable Ukraine's air force and military to gain insights into NATO operations, as closer integration with NATO systems will be necessary.
Ukraine demonstrated its adaptability by successfully conducting a raid on an airfield in Kursk, western Russia, using low-cost cardboard drones provided by the Australian government. These inexpensive drones reportedly damaged multiple fighter jets, anti-aircraft missile launchers, gun systems, and an air surface-to-air missile defense system. This operation underscores how innovative design choices can have a significant impact on warfare, as military and commercial demands drive development.
In contrast, Russia has reportedly deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, despite substantial opposition among Belarus's urban population. Russia's nuclear doctrine, updated in 2020, suggests it would use such weapons if the very existence of the state is jeopardized by aggression involving conventional weapons. However, this interpretation can be broad, raising concerns about potential escalations.
Pope Francis recently delivered a video address to the All-Russian Meeting of Catholic Youth in St. Petersburg, praising the heritage of "Mother Russia" and mentioning historical figures like Peter I and Catherine II. While the Pope's intent may have been to emphasize cultural greatness, it was perceived differently in Kyiv, where it sounded like a homage to autocrats, including Putin, who sometimes likens himself to Peter I, and Catherine II, known for the 18th-century annexation of Crimea.
The battle for Russia's identity, intertwined with empire and religion, is explored by Olivia Durand of Oxford University. She delves into the significance of empire and religion in the Russian psyche and the distress the Pope's words may have caused among Ukrainians.
Lastly, for those seeking in-depth insights into the conflict, historian Mark Edele's book, "Russia's War Against Ukraine: The Whole Story," provides a comprehensive overview. This book, reviewed by Marko Pavlyshyn, an emeritus professor in Ukrainian Studies at Monash University, offers valuable perspectives on this complex conflict.