Ecuador in a state of war against drug cartels and their terror campaign

Ecuador is currently embroiled in a state of war against drug cartels and their terror campaign. Escalating violence, including brutal tactics, has led to a surge in homicides.

This surge in violence has shaken the very fabric of Ecuadorian society, transforming the country from a safe haven into a hotbed of crime and insecurity. In 2019, Ecuador was considered one of the safest countries in Latin America, boasting a homicide rate of 6.7 per 100,000 inhabitants, comparable to that of the United States. Fast forward to 2023, and estimates suggest that the homicide rate has grown more than sixfold, potentially reaching a staggering 45 per 100,000 inhabitants. This drastic rise threatens to make Ecuador the deadliest country in mainland Latin America, a grim and shocking transformation.

The drug cartels operating in Ecuador have adopted horrifying and spectacularly violent tactics to establish their dominance. Public hangings, decapitations, and even acts of immolation have become chilling trademarks of their reign of terror. These brutal displays are not only meant to strike fear into the hearts of the population but also to send a stark message to rival cartels and law enforcement agencies. Cartels like Los Choneros, which have established ties with Mexican drug trafficking organizations like the Sinaloa cartel, have managed to arm themselves with an arsenal that includes machine guns, rifles, and grenades. These weapons give them the firepower to stand their ground against Ecuador's undertrained and overwhelmed armed forces.

The origins of this surge in violence can be traced back to changes in the global cocaine trade dynamics. Ecuador, particularly its major port city of Guayaquil, assumed a pivotal role as a hub for trafficking Peruvian and Colombian cocaine to the United States and Europe. This shift came about after Colombian ports tightened their security measures in 2009, diverting a significant portion of the cocaine trade through Ecuador. While this trade was once monopolized by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a powerful Colombian guerrilla group, the dynamics changed dramatically when the FARC signed a peace deal with the Colombian government in 2016. The demobilization of most FARC members left a power vacuum that enticed local, regional, and international drug cartels to fill the void.

Furthermore, Ecuador's dollarized economy and lax visa requirements for foreigners, which remained in place until 2020, facilitated the rapid influx of international organized crime groups. Mexican cartels and the Albanian mafia, in particular, seized this opportunity to expand their presence within Ecuador, establishing a formidable presence in the country.

In addition to external factors, Ecuador's internal political decisions have played a significant role in exacerbating the crisis. During the presidency of Rafael Correa, a populist left-wing leader who held office from 2007 to 2017, Ecuador made several decisions that weakened its ability to combat drug cartels effectively. In the name of anti-imperialism, Correa closed an American military base on the coast, terminated cooperation with the United States Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), and disbanded an elite anti-narcotics police unit that had been trained by U.S. agents. These actions not only hampered the country's ability to combat drug trafficking but also created a power vacuum that allowed drug cartels to thrive.

Corruption within Ecuador's government institutions and law enforcement agencies has further compounded the problem. Reports emerged in 2023 of police investigations into several government officials with links to the Albanian mafia. Tragically, the top suspect was later found dead, raising concerns about the extent of corruption within the government and its impact on efforts to combat the cartels.

Recent events have showcased the brazenness of the drug cartels operating in Ecuador. The crisis was set in motion on January 7th when Adolfo Macías, the leader of the Los Choneros drug gang, escaped from La Regional prison in Guayaquil, the country's largest city, where he had been serving a 34-year sentence for murder and drug trafficking. His escape sparked riots among imprisoned gang members across the nation, with videos circulating on social media depicting gangsters taking prison guards hostage and even executing them.

In response to the escalating violence, President Daniel Noboa declared a state of emergency on January 8th, with a nightly curfew imposed. The army was deployed to regain control of the prisons, which had become hubs for directing cartel operations. However, the cartels retaliated vigorously, detonating bombs, burning cars, and even kidnapping police officers.

On the same day as the prison riots, another armed group raided Guayaquil University, taking students hostage and engaging in a fierce firefight with the police. President Noboa, on January 9th, declared an "internal armed conflict" and ordered the army to take action against 22 organized crime groups, including Los Choneros.

As of January 10th, armored vehicles and soldiers patrolled the streets, attempting to restore order. While the gunmen who stormed the TV station were apprehended, the violence had already claimed the lives of at least ten people, and Ecuador remained in a state of lockdown.

President Noboa, who took office in November, has adopted an aggressive approach to confront the drug cartels. He has announced the construction of two new maximum-security prisons and declared these cartels as terrorist organizations. Moreover, he has called for a referendum that could legalize extradition, allow for the pardon of police officers and soldiers, and enable the seizure of assets from suspected criminals.

However, the challenges facing President Noboa are immense. Unlike Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador, who has gained popularity for his hardline approach against gangs, the Ecuadorian cartels are far more sophisticated and entrenched. President Noboa's efforts to combat corruption and restore law and order may be hindered by the sheer scale of the problem.

To truly address the crisis, President Noboa may need to consider a multifaceted approach. This could involve improved cooperation and data sharing with neighboring countries and international partners, setting up a gun registry to control weapons trafficking, rebuilding anti-narcotics units dismantled by previous administrations, and reestablishing cooperation with the United States, which has offered assistance.

Additionally, bolstering the state's presence along the Colombian border and in key cities like Guayaquil is imperative to counter the cartels effectively. Without such comprehensive measures, going to war against Ecuador's newly empowered and ruthless drug cartels may ultimately prove futile, leaving the nation and its citizens trapped in a seemingly endless cycle of violence and fear.