Crimea’s past, and its postwar future
As Vladimir Putin's military efforts in Ukraine face difficulties, the pivotal region of Crimea remains a contentious point. Political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski, in his 1997 book "The Grand Chessboard," was one of the first to identify the Crimean Peninsula as a potential source of instability in the post-Soviet territories. Crimea has indeed become a key focus in Russia's efforts to sustain and extend its imperial influence.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his 2014 speech at the Kremlin, declared the annexation of Crimea, using historical references that were widely considered inaccurate. He linked the region to the baptism of St. Vladimir in Khersones, an ancient Greek colony, to justify Russian control, though these connections are tenuous with respect to modern Russia.
Crimea's history is marked by multiple changes in control, with significant periods under Russian rule being relatively recent. The late Middle Ages saw Crimea as a central part of the Crimean Khanate. Following the Russo-Turkish War in 1774, Crimea gained brief independence before being annexed by Russia in 1783 under Catherine the Great. Its annexation coincided with Russia's expansion to other regions like Bialystok, Warsaw, and Tbilisi, challenging the notion of an "eternal" Russian claim to Crimea.
The 19th century's Crimean War, with the Ottomans backed by France and the UK, further shaped Crimea's geopolitical significance. After World War I, Crimea was included in Ukraine, recognized by Western governments, and later became part of the Soviet Union as an autonomous republic.
In 1954, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR, a move influenced by logistical considerations and political dynamics within the Soviet Union. Throughout the Romanov and Soviet eras, the region saw significant settlement by Russians and Ukrainians.
With the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Crimea remained part of an independent Ukraine, a status recognized by the international community, including Russia, until 2014.
Crimea's strategic value lies in its position on the Black Sea, offering significant geopolitical advantages. After the USSR's collapse, Moscow aimed to maintain its influence in the Black Sea through agreements with Kyiv, including the Russian Black Sea Fleet's presence in Sevastopol.
Within Ukraine, Crimea was granted autonomy in 1992, partly to mitigate separatist tendencies. The Crimean Tatars, who had been exiled by Stalin, returned to the peninsula in a free Ukraine, although they constituted a minority compared to the ethnic Russian majority.
Post-Soviet Ukraine initially underemphasized Crimea's significance, leading to political neglect. This was exemplified by the Yalta European Strategy forum, which symbolically aimed to strengthen Ukraine's ties with the West.
The 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia followed a controversial referendum and occurred amid political instability in Ukraine. This annexation, widely condemned as a violation of international law, was the most significant territorial change in the post-Soviet space.
Despite the muted international response, the annexation damaged strategic interests, particularly for Turkey. Crimea's inhabitants showed limited resistance in 2014, unlike the broader Ukrainian resistance against the Russian invasion in 2022.
The occupation of Crimea involved complex factors, including the demographic makeup of the region, Ukraine's military weakness, and political chaos in Kyiv. Post-2014, the Tatar population remained loyal to Ukraine, despite repressive measures by Russia.
Russia's major investment in Crimea post-annexation is the Kerch Strait bridge, symbolizing Crimea's connection to Russia. This bridge was targeted in 2022, reflecting its strategic significance.
The future of Crimea is uncertain, with potential scenarios including a Ukrainian offensive to reclaim the region. Russia's exit from Crimea would symbolize the end of changing European borders by force and the closure of the post-Soviet era with Russia's imperial myths.
Negotiations over Crimea's status are complex, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy unlikely to concede sovereignty to Russia. Discussions may focus on the nature of Crimea's autonomy and the rights of the Tatar minority. Post-war, Crimea could return to Ukrainian control under international guarantees and potentially be demilitarized, attracting international investment for its development.