Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Is More Successful Than You Think

The focus on the stalled land war obscures major successes in Crimea and the Black Sea.Recent coverage of the war in Ukraine in the Western media has focused heavily on Kyiv’s land offensive, especially attempts to push toward the Black Sea coast. Much of the scrutiny, rightly or wrongly, has been on Kyiv’s lack of significant progress so far this year, with nothing comparable to last year’s breakthrough offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson. While some of this criticism may be justified, the almost singular Western focus on territorial breakthroughs has distracted from the fact that Ukraine is fighting a medium- to long-term war on multiple fronts against a significantly larger and heavily entrenched foe. What’s more, the lack of a major Ukrainian land advance obscures the very real battlefield successes Ukraine has had in other theaters of the conflict—most notably in Russian-occupied Crimea and the Black Sea. A crucial part of Kyiv’s long-term plan for the war is to push Russia out of the Crimean Peninsula and the rest of the Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine’s coastline. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, headquartered at the Crimean port of Sevastopol, has been a critical component of Moscow’s war effort. Russian warships operating out of Sevastopol have enforced a blockade of Ukraine’s coastline and launched cruise missiles to rain hell onto Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. But over the last several months, Ukraine has achieved a series of startling victories in and around Crimea, including missile strikes against the Kerch Strait bridge and multiple daring attacks on the Black Sea Fleet itself—with major impacts on the Russians’ ability to operate on the peninsula and in the western Black Sea. In September, the Ukrainians carried out a series of missile strikes against Russian naval assets in Sevastopol, including a landing ship, a submarine, and the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet itself—reportedly while several high-ranking commanders were inside. Some of these strikes were carried out using Storm Shadow cruise missiles recently supplied by Britain and France. The Ukrainians have also ratcheted up their strikes against Russian logistics, repair, and infrastructure hubs on the peninsula with the intent of degrading Russia’s ability to support its fleet. Earlier this month, Kyiv claimed responsibility for two further attacks on the Russian fleet, using a new type of sea drone to strike the Russian cruise missile carrier Buyan and carrying out a sabotage attack on the Pavel Derzhavin, a Russian patrol ship. These strikes came after the Ukrainians had methodically attrited Russian anti-missile defense structures in Crimea over the previous weeks. These successes constitute a major breakthrough for Ukraine. Its strikes against Crimea have now made it all but impossible for the Russian Black Sea Fleet to continue to operate freely in the western Black Sea. The Russian Navy has responded by moving its warships farther east, to the naval base in Novorossiysk, a port city on the Russian mainland. The effect is to push the Russian fleet farther and farther into the eastern recesses of the Black Sea—a step toward Kyiv’s long-term objective of removing the Russians from the occupied peninsula by rendering it unfeasible for operations. This combination of attrition and displacement has had the effect of diminishing the Russian fleet’s capacity to patrol the waters near the Ukrainian ports, partially relieving pressure on the international shipping lanes in the Black Sea. This could allow Kyiv to achieve another goal of these operations: opening up Odesa’s three deep-water ports to international merchant shipping for grain and other goods. The Russian blockade of the Ukrainian ports had been alleviated by a Turkish and U.N. deal brokered in the summer of 2022 that had allowed certain amounts of Ukrainian goods—especially grain—to be exported through civilian shipping corridors. Moscow had been offered limited sanctions relief in exchange. The Kremlin withdrew from the agreement in July 2023, reestablished a blockade of all commercial shipping flowing to Odesa, and began a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian grain export facilities. The cumulative effect of the blockade was to make insurance prices for shipping in and out of Ukraine spike and allow Russian grain exports to start dominating the markets. In August, Kyiv’s response was to institute an alternative humanitarian sea corridor that ran closely along the Ukrainian coast and would be protected by the navies of NATO members Bulgaria and Romania. The gamble that Russian threats to interdict shipping were a bluff and that they would not fire on internationally flagged ships paid off. By now, 32 intrepid international vessels have left Ukraine’s ports for Africa and elsewhere with their holds full of grain. Ukraine has also undertaken successful commando raids by small teams of elite naval infantry to achieve its objectives. In Crimea, Ukraine managed to destroy or disable Russian anti-air missile installations in preparation for bombardment of the peninsula. Among other objectives, these actions allowed Ukraine to retake strategically located oil and gas drilling rigs captured by the Russians at the start of the war, which they had used for maritime radar surveillance. The fact that Kyiv only has a limited arsenal of Western-provided precision long-range missiles means that the Ukrainians have had to be very resourceful with their deployment, including by eliminating as much of Russia’s air defense as possible before launching them. At the same time, the Ukrainians have also been successful in developing a new generation of sophisticated, locally made sea drones capable of striking past the defenses of the Russian fleet. The Russian anti-missile and traditional ship defense systems have proved incapable of offering protection against this new generation of sea drones, including the Ukrainian “Sea Baby” series of partially submerged attack drones. Representing a tiny fraction of the cost of an advanced Russian battleship, landing ship, or submarine, these relatively inexpensive and quickly constructed drones have proved themselves to be a radical innovation. By the end of the summer, the Ukrainians had proved not only capable of sinking or maiming serious Russian naval assets, but also of making the further use of Sevastopol unsustainable for the Black Sea Fleet. The British Ministry of Defense assessed that Russia had “relocated many of its prestige assets—including cruise missile capable ships and submarines—from Sevastopol to operating and basing areas further east, such as Novorossiysk.” Furthermore, on Oct. 5, the leader of the Russian-occupied Georgian region of Abkhazia, which is located even farther east than Novorossiysk, made public statements that his Moscow-backed region would soon host a “permanent point of deployment” for the Russian Navy. Such a base would be located almost at the very eastern end of the Black Sea, suggesting that the Russians have concluded that stationing naval assets anywhere near Ukraine and its now heavily mined shoreline is untenable. These successes have had the effect of severely restricting Russia’s range of mobility in the Black Sea. British Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said, “The functional defeat of the Black Sea Fleet, and I would argue that is what it is, because it has been forced to disperse to ports from which it cannot have an effect on Ukraine, is an enormous credit.” please rephrase this

The article highlights the significant developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, emphasizing Ukraine's notable achievements in Crimea and the Black Sea, which have been overshadowed by the focus on the land war. The Western media has been primarily fixated on Ukraine's land offensives, particularly those aimed at the Black Sea coast, and the apparent lack of major advances compared to the previous year's successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson.

However, this narrow focus overlooks Ukraine's broader strategy in a protracted, multi-front war against a larger and entrenched adversary. Ukraine's notable victories in Crimea and the Black Sea are crucial aspects of this strategy. The Russian Black Sea Fleet, based in Crimea's Sevastopol, has been central to Moscow's military operations, enforcing a blockade and launching missile attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Ukraine, over recent months, has successfully struck key targets in Crimea, including the Kerch Strait bridge and the Black Sea Fleet. These strikes, including one on Sevastopol that hit a landing ship, a submarine, and the fleet's headquarters, have been a significant setback for Russian naval operations. Some of these attacks utilized Storm Shadow cruise missiles from Britain and France. Ukraine has also intensified attacks on Russian logistics and infrastructure on the peninsula, aiming to weaken Russia's naval support capabilities.

These Ukrainian efforts have effectively hindered the Russian Black Sea Fleet's operations in the western part of the sea. The Russian Navy has had to relocate its vessels further east to Novorossiysk, and even further to Abkhazia, indicating a shift away from Ukraine's heavily defended coastline.

Additionally, Ukraine's innovative use of sea drones, like the "Sea Baby" series, has proven highly effective against Russian naval defenses. These cost-effective drones have been a game-changer, forcing Russia to reassess its naval positioning in the Black Sea.

The Ukrainian offensive in the Black Sea has not only damaged Russian naval assets but also challenged the sustainability of Sevastopol as a base for the Black Sea Fleet. This shift in Russian naval deployment reflects a significant limitation on their mobility and operational range in the Black Sea.

These developments represent a strategic victory for Ukraine, demonstrating its capability to counter Russian naval power and disrupt operations in the Black Sea, a significant factor in the ongoing conflict.