Five Years of War in the Donbas

Article

In spite of these tragic outcomes, there are emerging signs that point towards the potential for a resolution. The weariness and discontent among those living in separatist-dominated territories, a shift in Russia's approach partly due to its own citizens' dissatisfaction, and the election of a new Ukrainian leadership not entangled with regional factions or oligarchic circles, are all factors that could pave the way to peace. However, for peace to be sustainable, Ukraine needs to foster an inclusive, civic national identity and effectively combat the deep-seated corruption that plagues the country.

The role of the international community is crucial in not only forging a resolution to the conflict but also in supporting Ukraine's recovery from the war's fallout. While it may be easy for external commentators to highlight internal strife and corruption as the roots of the conflict, suggesting that Ukraine must address these issues independently, it's also true that international dynamics have played a part in igniting the conflict, with Ukraine caught in the geopolitical crossfire between Russia and the West. A truthful recounting of the conflict's origins must admit to this reality. A just approach to aiding Ukraine post-conflict would involve meaningful, sustained support to help the country rebuild and move forward.

Name

Five Years of War in the Donbas

Types

Authors

Robert E. Hamilton

Claims from

The cause of the war can be partly attributed to the Russian leadership's failure to respond positively to Western involvement in Ukraine. Rather than fostering a Ukraine that was independent yet amicable towards Russia, they persistently interacted with Ukrainian politicians embroiled in corruption

The conflict has shifted Ukrainian political consensus towards a Western trajectory, ending the internal East-West division and reducing the influence of voters who previously favored closer relations with Russia

Concerns also arise from risky sites like the Donetsk and Horlivka State Chemical Plants, which house a collection of radioactive and dangerous chemicals

Methane and radon levels have increased in the air around abandoned mines, which can also create explosion hazards in nearby buildings

The reality of who subsidized whom in Ukraine is complex, but perceptions of unfair economic practices were strong on both sides, influencing regional identities and grievances

Views on the Soviet Union's legacy are divisive; in western Ukraine, it is often viewed as a disruptive force against the country's natural development into a European state. This region has its distinct heroes and national narratives and was not fully integrated into the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic until 1956

In the Donbas, a Soviet identity persists without a direct link to ethnicity or language, while in western Ukraine, a European identity is prevalent, with both influencing loyalty and perspectives on Ukraine's development

The war in Donbas revolves around identities that encompass more than just ethnic and linguistic lines; it is also about historical-geopolitical and socio-economic identities, which interact to shape the divisions of the war

There is a mutual resentment between the Donbas and the more rural, agricultural central and western Ukraine, each accusing the other of being a financial burden

Historical-geopolitical identities, which are not strictly connected to ethnicity or language, have a significant impact on loyalties in Ukraine. These identities are framed by perceptions of history and preferred geopolitical alignments

The war has ended Ukraine's pendulum-like movement between East and West and caused the collapse of the Ukrainian political elite, which was previously defined by regional cleavages and patronage networks

Prior to the war, the Ukrainian armed forces were in a severely weakened state, to the extent that describing them as "hollow" would be an understatement

Some analysts suggest that the patronage networks played a role in the onset of the war, with conflicts between oligarchic groups aligned with different political figures

The war in Ukraine has contributed to a polarization of identities, which is reflected in the decrease of people identifying with more than one ethnic group

Concerns are particularly high about the flooding of mines like Oleksandr-Zakhid, which were contaminated by waste from chemical plants

The economic hardship following the collapse of the Soviet Union hit the Donbas particularly hard due to its non-competitive industries in the global market

However, there are indications of Ukraine's recovery from the immediate war impacts. The macroeconomic situation is improving, with the economy growing, single-digit inflation rates, decreasing public debt, currency stabilization, and competent management at the National Bank of Ukraine

The new Ukrainian government after Yanukovich sought rapid Western integration, with ambitions for EU and NATO membership, and aimed to build a Western-style civil society, which marginalized the distinct identity of the Donbas and led to feelings of exclusion

The Holodomor (1932-1933 famine) is revered in western Ukraine as a genocide against Ukrainians and nationalist guerrillas like Stepan Bandera are celebrated as national heroes

A significant portion of those who identify as Ukrainian also consider Russian their native language, particularly in the Donbas region, further blurring ethno-linguistic lines

Trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ukraine decreased, the Ukrainian currency (Hryvna) depreciated against Western currencies, the national debt increased, and there was a forced shift in the economy from industry to agriculture due to the conflict

Abandoned, flooded mines increase the risk of medium-intensity earthquakes and ground subsidence, which damages buildings and infrastructure

The label "Russian-speakers" is not a definitive indicator of loyalty, as evidenced by the varied responses in eastern Ukrainian cities like Toretsk, where the majority speaks Ukrainian but showed considerable support for separatists

Despite signs that a resolution to the conflict might be possible, the environmental legacies of the war could persist for decades and cause extensive human and environmental damage

Western support for the Maidan protests was perceived by the Kremlin as part of a pattern of "color revolutions" in Russia's sphere of influence, which they saw as orchestrated by Western intelligence to undermine Russia-friendly governments

The YunKom Mine, where an underground nuclear explosion was set off in 1979, is of particular concern due to potential radioactive contamination if flooded

The conflict in Ukraine involves a "weaponization" of history, where one narrative portrays Ukraine as an integral part of Russia, and another as an Eastern European nation oppressed by Russia

Abandoned mines present urgent environmental hazards, such as air, water, and soil pollution, and ground subsidence due to flooding when groundwater is no longer pumped out

Russian-backed forces seized assets worth over $100 billion

The post-Soviet economic collapse hit the Donbas particularly hard because its economy was ill-equipped for the global market, exacerbating regional economic grievances and contributing to a perception of unfair economic burden-sharing within Ukraine

The Donbas workers' historical embrace of "Stakhanovism" and the Soviet portrayal of Donbas coal miners as patriotic "model workers" highlight the region's identity tied to the Soviet legacy

There are 176 potentially hazardous facilities in the Donbas, with 99 in separatist-controlled territory, including coal mines and hydro-engineering facilities

The Soviet decision to industrialize the Donbas led to a distinct regional identity, fostered by population transfers and the creation of a worker culture closely identified with the Soviet industrial past

The social and economic structures of the Donbas are unique within Ukraine, largely due to its history as the center of Soviet-era heavy industry and mining

The starkly different views of the Soviet past between eastern and western Ukraine have laid the groundwork for potential conflict, although they did not make it unavoidable

The political landscape of Ukraine has been significantly altered, with the war ending the pendulum swing between Eastern and Western alignments, which was a feature of its pre-war governments

Although unintended, the war has profoundly impacted Ukraine, causing the downfall of its political elite, instigating a new type of government, inflicting up to $10 billion in direct economic losses (and more in trade and investment disruptions), fundamentally overhauling the Ukrainian military, creating societal and psychological upheaval, and resulting in extensive environmental harm

Ground subsidence due to mine flooding has already affected large areas, with Donetsk City averaging 25cm of subsidence and destabilizing around 9 billion cubic meters of mine tunnels

Western Ukraine's geopolitical identity is said to be based on the Ukrainian language, opposition to the region's historical colonization by the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union, and specific historical memories that differ markedly from those in other parts of Ukraine

Tim Judah, a notable observer, highlights that since Ukraine's independence in 1991, its military had suffered from chronic underfunding, which had left it in a poor state by the time tensions escalated into war

External interventions and geopolitical interests, particularly from Russia and the West, have influenced the internal tensions in Ukraine and contributed to the outbreak of conflict in the Donbas

Flooding of mines like YunKom could lead to a release of radiation-contaminated waters into the groundwater, potentially making the water undrinkable within two decades

Russia has taken greater control of the separatist economies and is seeking to reduce its financial support where possible. For instance, a Russian state-owned company provides all the fuel supplies for the republics, and the banking sector is largely controlled by the Russian state bank for frozen conflict territories

The war has damaged 530,000 hectares of land, including wildlife preserves and forests, some due to fires caused by military activities

Ukraine's military budget increased from $1.9 billion in 2013 to $4.9 billion in 2019, reflecting a significant investment in defense

The West was actively working to build a constituency in Ukraine that favored Western political and economic ties and a Western-style civil society, particularly outside of the Donbas

The separatist-controlled regions are highly dependent on Russian support for survival. Leaked emails from Russian government officials reveal that over 50% of the budgets for the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk "people's republics" are funded by Russia

The Russian view of the Maidan revolution failed to recognize its Ukrainian roots, overly focusing on supposed Western involvement, while the West underestimated the Kremlin's genuine fears of Western-fomented regime changes in its neighborhood

The war has been economically catastrophic for Ukraine and has prompted the rapid development of its armed forces. It has also left a lasting impact on the social-psychology of the Ukrainian people and caused extensive environmental damage

Ukrainian and Western experts fear environmental disaster from flooding the YunKom Mine, contradicting the Donetsk People’s Republic's claim of no environmental risk

In 2013, Ukraine conducted no brigade-level or higher training exercises, but by 2017, ground forces had conducted 26 such exercises

The Russian government's paranoia extended to the belief that the "color revolutions" were a rehearsal for potential regime change in Moscow itself

There is a fundamental disagreement about Ukraine's developmental path and geopolitical future, with one side favoring integration with Europe and the other favoring strong ties with Russia

Infrastructure destruction has been extensive, with early reports in 2014 indicating 11,325 infrastructure facilities worth approximately UAH 11.9 billion ($909 million at the time) were destroyed, with estimates by 2017 rising to about $50 billion

Contaminated water runoff from these mines puts almost 2.5 million tons of contaminants, including potentially mercury, lead, and arsenic, into the Severniy Donets River and the Sea of Azov annually

At least 35 mines in the Donbas are already flooded beyond repair, and another 70 are in the process of shutting down and will likely flood

The economic ties between the Donbas and Russia meant that Ukraine's Association Agreements with the EU posed a threat to the region's economic interests, worsening the economic crisis there

There is consensus both within and outside the Ukrainian government that the country did not possess a military force that could be considered modern on the eve of the conflict

Cover

Publish date

10

Month

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24

Day

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2019

Year

12

:

00

am

Publisher

Foreign Policy Research Institute

Tags

Effects of the War in Donbas

Identity in the context of the War in Donbas

Causes of the War in Donbas

Enviromental effects of the war in Ukraine

Topics

Web URL

https://www.fpri.org/article/2019/10/five-years-of-war-in-the-donbas/